Chris' Take: It's been a season of streaks for the Bengals, and as they head to San Diego to face the Chargers, they are on the winning kind. As for the Chargers, they are on the losing kind (insightful, huh?). Simply put, the Bengals are hot, and the Chargers are not. Not sure why San Diego is favored. I'll take Cincy and the points.
Chris' Pick: CIN -1.5
Matt's Take: I feel like Bill Murray from Groundhog day. I keep waking up to the same spread scenarios. The Bengals are in a big push for the playoffs and are playing some of their best football recently against the Giants and cellar dwelling Chiefs and Raiders. The Chargers aren't much better than either of their AFC West counterparts. So why is this spread 1.5? Are we going to expect the same no show from another AFC North opponent? Did the Chargers fix their myriad offensive issues? Did Norv learn how to coach? The answer to all of those is NO.
Matt's Pick: CIN -1.5
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos
Chris' Take: The loss of Aqib Tailb (traded to Patriots) and Eric Wright (serving 4-game suspension) have really hurt the Buccaneers (6-5, 3-2 away) secondary, and that doesn't bode well against Peyton Manning and the Broncos' (8-3, 4-1 home) passing attack. BUT all the Buccaneers' losses have come by an average of about 4 points with no real outliers, plus they are 6-1 ATS as an underdog, and 5-0 ATS on the road. I'm not messing with a good thing, and I'm not going against the Battlin' Bucs.
Chris' Pick: TB +7
Matt's Take: This may be an unpopular pick since it does send Tampa on the road in an unfriendly atmosphere against a red-hot Broncos team, but the Bucs haven't lost a game by more than 7 all year and they have more than enough offense to keep up with Denver. I'm not saying Denver isn't for real, I think they have a good shot to make a deep playoff run but their recent 6 game winning includes San Diego x2, Carolina, Kansas City, and an actual fraudulent team in New Orleans. I just think 7 might be too high here. Also it's nice to be betting with my sweethearts again.
Matt's Pick: TB +7
3. Cleveland Browns @ Oakland Raiders
Chris' Take: The Raiders (3-8, 2-3 home) are winless as a favorite this year (0-4), and the Browns (3-8, 0-5 away) are coming off a win against Pittsburgh. Brandon Weeden has been tempering his INTs lately, and Carson Palmer certainly hasn't, throwing at least one pick in each of his last seven games. The Browns also have a decent running game with Trent Richardson, and the Raiders can't stop the run at all. I don't expect the Browns to go winless on the road this year, and I don't expect them to beat Denver (Week 16) or Pittsburgh with Big Ben back under center (Week 17), so I think they get their lone road win this week against Oakland.
Matt's Take: Sexy, sexy matchup. Thank god for the Redzone channel or i'd be force to watch this snoozefest. Yeah, this is also how bad the card is this week that this is my #3 game. Simply put the Browns are playing better than the Raiders. Nothing more to really evaluate. Now where is the Chiefs game so I can pick against all 4 AFC West teams?
Matt's Pick: CLE (Pk)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills
Chris' Take: The Bills (4-7, 2-2 home) are still fighting for the bleak chance at a playoff berth, and the Chad Henne is fighting for his future job as QB of the Jaguars (2-9, 1-4 away). Buffalo is 3-1 ATS as a favorite this season, but Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS on the road and as an underdog on the road. The Jags nearly defeated the Texans at home two weeks ago, losing by 6 in overtime, then they won last week when they returned home against the Titans, and I think they will win their 2nd straight game against the Bills.
Matt's Take: Yeah this one actually does have some more appeal, both teams have fairly potent offenses with defenses that leave something to be desired. Since Henne has stepped in Jacksonville has looked like a passing juggernaut. Who would've thought that Blaine Gabbert wasn't the answer in Jacksonville? I fully expect Tannehill to be a victim of these similar circumstances next year. What a waste of a first round pick. As for this game, the old mantra don't give more than 3 with mediocre teams applies here. Could Buffalo win by 7? Sure. But more likely they lose or win by 4 or less.
Matt's Pick: JAX +6
5. Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets
Chris' Take: In a battle of two teams who will not make the playoffs, the Jets (4-7, 2-4 home) will host the Cardinals (4-7, 1-4 away) on Sunday. Both teams are really struggling, but the Cardinals are 4-6 ATS this season, and I think that figure pulls eve closer to .500 this week and snaps its 7-game losing streak this week or at least comes close with the return of Beanie Wells and LSH as they go against a Jets defense ranked 30th in the league against the run.
Matt's Take: Yuck. This game is horrible and that spread is horrible. But Whisenhunt is trying to get himself fired by sticking with Ryan Lindley over Skelton. Kolb may return, but there hasn't been any positive news on that front this week. The Jets like to do the Jekyll and Hyde routine, look terrible one week then beat a team good the next week. This is a perfect scenario for that to happen, I just wish I didn't have to give 4.5.
Matt's Pick: NYJ -4.5
BONUS: San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
Chris' Take: The 49ers (8-2-1, 4-1 away) and the Rams (4-6-1, 3-3 home) played to a tie just a few weeks ago in San Francisco (a game the Niners probably should have lost), but that won't happen this week. The 49ers are playing great football right now with Colin Kaepernick at QB, with wins against the Bears and Saints, and I look for that to continue this week. Some may think this game will be tight because of the recent tie, coupled with the fact that these NFC West division rivals are very familiar with each other, but the 49ers are 3-1 ATS as a favorite on the road this season. Niners win big.
Chris' Pick: SF -7
Matt's Take: Back to back road games for the 49ers and of course we all remember how fired up the Rams were for this game last time they met. The 49ers also needed some help from a couple of interception returns to put away the Saints. I don't like Amendola in a walking boot, but I also just don't like giving 7 with the 49ers. Kinda odd having a bonus in a week where I hate the card, but I haven't had a bonus in a couple of weeks.
Matt's Pick: STL +7
